Validating system model
Model estimation does not determine if the model provides the most accurate description of the system.
We then investigate the appropriateness and properties of those procedures through a series of simulation experiments.
Use model residual analysis to analyze the prediction error, which is the difference between the response that an estimated model predicts and the actual response from the system.
The following equation defines the prediction error, also known as the residual ) is the output from the one-step-ahead prediction.
The challenge is to design novel quantitative tests that are appropriate for System Dynamics behavior evaluation.
Such tests should focus on major time rather than individual data points.
Validation of model behavior is an important part of simulation validation in general, System Dynamics model validation in particular.